Trump, Biden, Keystone XL and France’s coming election | Interview with French essayist Guy Milliere

Guy Millière is a French essayist specialized in geopolitics, senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and at the American Freedom Alliance in Los Angeles. He is also a professor at the University of Paris VIII.

My Post (51)

This interview was conducted by Simon Leduc.

Q: Do you think Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate for the 2024 presidential elections?

It’s too early to say, but it’s clear that Donald Trump outlined a strategy on February 28th in Orlando that leads to the answer that if, as is likely, the Biden presidency turns into a disaster, and if the Republicans win a victory in the midterm elections, Donald Trump will most likely run in 2024 and, as he himself has said, have a strong chance of winning for the third time. I can go through it point by point.

First point. President Biden’s presidency is, in fact, already turning into a disaster: a very serious migration crisis is taking shape on the country’s southern border. An economic and financial crisis is looming, so inept and damaging are the decisions taken in the economic field (a wave of inflation is being triggered by the delirious use of the money board, energy prices have soared since the Keystone Pipeline was shut down and will have repercussions in all areas). An international crisis is looming in the Middle East where the Biden administration is showing weakness vis-à-vis the mullah regime, destabilizing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and putting Israel under pressure. Disaster seems inevitable, alas.

Second point: The Democrats want to pass a law legalizing fraud, the HR1 law. It has already been passed in the House of Representatives and will probably be passed in the Senate. The Supreme Court will probably declare it unconstitutional. If it does not, many states will refuse to implement it, and I doubt that Biden (or Kamala Harris, who will succeed him) will send in the federal army. The massive frauds will probably not be able to take place a second time, especially since the censorship on everything related to the November 3 frauds cannot last indefinitely. Without massive fraud, the Republicans will have every chance of winning the midterm elections, especially since they will take place in the context of the disasters I have just mentioned.

Trump, under these conditions, will undoubtedly run, and should announce it around January and February 2023. And yes, he would then have a good chance of winning. It is, of course, possible that Trump might choose to support a candidate of his choice, but that seems to me, at this moment, very unlikely. It’s also possible that things might turn out differently, and that the Democrats might be able to maintain HR 1 and enough fraud to win the midterm elections, in which case the situation will become very worrisome, and we’ll be faced with a risk of the United States falling apart, but that risk, at this point, also seems very unlikely to me.

Q: What will the relationship between Canada and the U.S. look like under the Biden administration?

Canada currently has a left-wing prime minister who has almost all the ideas needed to get along with the American left currently in power in Washington, DC.

The abandonment of the Keystone pipeline by the Biden administration seemed at first to displease Justin Trudeau, but after that initial moment, Trudeau has come to terms with the Biden administration’s decision very well.

Canada will be able to continue to sell shale oil to the U.S. (less likely to be transported by rail and road), and Canada will be able to sell more shale oil to China, which will not be asking for more, and Justin Trudeau is on appeasing positions vis-à-vis China, and will probably not hesitate to go in that direction.

If Canada changed its policy direction and the Conservatives returned to power, things would be different, but that seems unlikely. I know there are rumours of an early election in Canada, and an election could be held before 2023, but if an election were held in Canada in the coming months, Justin Trudeau, according to the polls, would win it, and could move from the current situation where he is in a minority government, to one where he could form a majority government.

We are in a phase where left-wing governments are in power in many countries in the Western world. This is the result of a long work of the left to take power in the sectors of education, culture, journalism. The conservatives have not been vigilant enough. They are paying for their insufficient vigilance. The left always deteriorates the societies it is in charge of, and often, when people feel the effects of the deterioration in their daily lives, they turn again to the conservatives to redress the situation, but this is not always the case. Sometimes the left creates a resignation that allows it to stay in power, and the country concerned then slides into decline.

Q: Some polls give Le Pen and Macron a view of the 2022 presidential election. Is Marine Le Pen likely to become President of France?

I don’t think Marine Le Pen will become president and has a real chance, and I think Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected. I say this without joy because Emmanuel Macron is in my eyes destroying France. Marine Le Pen will benefit from the very clear discontent of the French population, will most certainly be in the second round of the presidential election, and will have a very high score in the first and second rounds. But I don’t think she will be able to gather around her all the discontent.

The left and the extreme left still have strength in France, and the speech saying that we must “stop fascism” and “save the republic” will be heard again, although it is unfounded (Marine Le Pen is not a fascist and does not threaten the republic) and will play the role that Macron expects of it.

Macron will therefore remain president by default: not because the French want him (they don’t), but because a majority of French people will continue to be afraid of Marine Le Pen. What I am saying does not bode well for France: a president elected by default has no legitimacy, and Macron has already been elected by default in 2017.

For the time being, Macron is maintaining in the country rules worthy of an authoritarian regime by using the fear of the pandemic, and the French do not yet fully see the extent of the damage, but if the rules are relaxed, explosions of anger are to be expected. Macron intends to avoid these outbursts of anger by maintaining the rules. How much longer will he be able to do this? No one knows, but the longer the rules are maintained, the greater the damage will be. France is declining and is in a zone of major turbulence. Macron is harmful, but there is no one who is generating enough support to replace it. It is a tragic situation.

Q: What do you think of former President Sarkozy’s conviction for corruption and influence peddling?

This condemnation shows a little more that France is a country adrift, and I say this without having any sympathy for Nicolas Sarkozy who, in my opinion, has been a bad president (like all French presidents, alas, for decades).

Justice in France is at the behest of the political power, and it does not dispense justice: it obeys commands. Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have intended to run for the presidential election of 2022, Macron considered that Sarkozy would have been a dangerous candidate for him, he had him eliminated. We can add that the vast majority of judges in France are from the left and the extreme left, and for the left and the extreme left, Nicolas Sarkozy is an enemy to be shot down at all costs.

The text of the sentencing judgment shows total disregard for the most elementary principles of law and the presumption of innocence, and could have been written by a leftist activist. Commentator Eric Zemmour has rightly said that this text could have been signed by Edwy Plenel, the most well-known leftist journalist in France, and Eric Zemmour is right. This is not the first time that French justice has targeted a political enemy of Macron.

In 2017, Macron was not born in power, but French justice knew that a socialist or leftist candidate could not be elected, it knew that Marine Le Pen would lose. It did not want François Fillon, it eliminated him. Without this elimination, Macron would not be president today.

If Marine Le Pen turned out to be dangerous in 2022, I have no doubt that French justice would find a way to incriminate and eliminate her. Not only is France a country adrift, but it is no longer a democratic country and keeps only appearances of democracy, as we see month after month.

Support Quality Journalism.

Independent journalism is important now more than ever. The role of journalists in our society is one of watchdogs. One cannot be a watchdog when they are on the government’s payroll. 

Make a donation today and support quality,  independent journalism. 

Share this story: